BTC Swing Trading Rulebook

Floor Assumption: $60,000 · Top Assumption: $200,000 · System: Reduce → Reinvest Profits → Re-Leverage

1) Fixed Core Assumptions

  • Spot BTC is fully used as futures collateral (no “safe” spot allocation).
  • No external collateral injection (except realized profits from reductions).
  • Risk is managed exclusively through position reduction.
  • Leverage is only increased if liquidation distance remains healthy.
  • The top zone is considered a range, not a single point: $180k–$200k.

Liquidation Distance Formula

Liquidation Distance (%) = (BTC Price − Liquidation Price) / BTC Price × 100

Risk Scale: Red < 30% Healthy 30–40% Very Healthy > 40%

2) Non-Negotiable Rules

Emergency Rule

If liquidation distance falls below 30% → immediately close 20–30% of the position.
No re-leveraging until distance returns ≥ 30%.

Re-Leveraging Rules

  • Only allowed after a position reduction.
  • Never directly after reduction — wait 1–2 weeks or confirmed consolidation/retest.
  • Increase leverage only if liquidation distance remains ≥ target level.
  • During parabolic moves or extreme euphoria → suspend re-leveraging.

5 Questions Before Any Action

  1. Is liquidation distance ≥ target?
  2. Was the last action a reduction?
  3. Is the weekly structure intact (HH/HL)?
  4. No parabolic move / funding not extreme?
  5. Is the action aligned with the matrix?

3) Action Matrix (Floor: $60k)

BTC Price Zone Market Phase Max Leverage Mandatory Action Reduction Re-Leverage Allowed? Liquidation Target
60k–65k Accumulation 1.5–1.8x DCA and hold No No ≥ 35%
65k–75k Transition ≤ 2.0x Observe structure No No ≥ 35%
75k–90k Early Bull 2.0–2.5x Reduce on extension 20–25% Yes (after pause) ≥ 35%
90k–110k Mid Bull ≤ 3.0x Reduce after +25–30% impulse 25–30% Yes ≥ 30–35%
110k–130k Mid Bull ≤ 3.0x Maintain neutral risk 25–30% Yes ≥ 30%
130k–160k Late Bull ≤ 4.0x Mandatory reduction 30–40% Carefully ≥ 30%
160k–180k Euphoria ≤ 5.0x (temporary) Reduce aggressively 40–60% Only after reduction ≥ 30%
180k–200k Top Zone ≤ 1.5x → 0x Close futures exposure Remaining No N/A
> 200k Exit Phase 0x Fully exit 100% No N/A

4) Reduction Triggers

Standard Reduction Signals
  • +25–30% move without meaningful pullback
  • Weekly candles turning parabolic
  • Funding rates elevated for multiple days
  • Extreme sentiment / market euphoria
Re-Leverage Only If
  • A prior reduction occurred
  • Liquidation distance ≥ target level
  • Market consolidates or confirms retest
  • No parabolic acceleration phase

Guiding Principle

Rule I reduce into strength. I only increase leverage on a smaller position. Profits are only real when they are no longer liquidatable.